USDA ups new crop wheat price forecast

Farm and Ranch June 11, 2008 USDA’s June forecast of U.S. winter wheat production this year is down less than one percent from the May estimate and 20 percent below 2008. However, both U.S. and world wheat ending stocks for this new marketing year are forecast to increase more than projected in May. Still, USDA chief economist Joe Glauber says the average wheat price forecast is up from last month.

Glauber: “Wheat prices, we are looking there at expected wheat mid-point of around $5.40 a bushel. That is off of course from the last few years, but we have increased that from the previous month.”

Up 20 cents from last month.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service did not change winter wheat yield forecasts for Washington and Oregon but increased expected yields in Idaho by a bushel from a month ago. Compared to 2008, winter wheat production in Oregon is forecast to be down 15 percent, down three percent in Idaho and up six percent in Washington. That puts the PNW winter wheat crop down one percent from last year.

Nationally, hard red production is down less than one percent from a month ago, soft red winter down two percent while white winter wheat production is up slightly with soft white pegged at 188 million bushels. Old crop white wheat carryout was increased by five million bushels to 57 million. That compares to a carryout of 37 million bushels the previous year.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.

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