Don't predict; forecast

Washington Ag Today January 28, 2011 If you are trying to make decisions for the future you probably try to be right, too right actually. Bob Treadway, the keynote speaker at this week’s annual Washington -Oregon Potato Conference in Kennewick, said prediction means certainty and that means things that you can be wrong about are discounted or ignored. But Treadway says you have to grasp the uncertainties and that’s why he suggests forecasting rather than predicting.

Treadway: “Some people might say well aren‘t they the same thing. No they aren‘t. Forecasting is taking into account uncertainty by saying here are the odds, here is the percentage that that might happen. Forecasting changes over time so you adjust it with time and new information, the same way that weather forecasters do.”

How might this apply to a potato grower or other producer? Treadway says don’t just plan a year at a time but five to ten years or more down the road.

Treadway: “Determine what they are relatively certain will be the range of forces, factors and trends that they will be facing at that point in time and then move backwards. Because I think it is much easier to start making decision like I am suggesting at this meeting, such as getting more energy efficient in the face of much, much higher prices for input and energy, and they could have been prepping for that much easier five years ago than trying to do it on a one year time frame.”

Anacortes futurist Bob Treadway.

That’s Washington Ag Today. Brought to you in part by the Washington State Potato Commission. Nutrition today. Good health tomorrow. I’m Bob Hoff on Northwest Aginfo Net.