All wheat production estimate up; price outlook down

Farm and Ranch July 13, 2009 The July crop production report from the USDA pegged total U.S. wheat production this year at 2.11 billion bushels. That‘s up from the June projection but less than last year‘s 2.5 billion.

The July report included the first surveyed estimate of spring wheat production, which at 506 million bushels is down seven percent from 2008.

USDA’s July supply and demand report added 59 million bushels to expected U.S. wheat carry over stocks next May. That puts ending stocks at 706 million bushels.

The bottom line; USDA chief economist Joe Glauber says the season average wheat price forecast has been lowered.

Glauber: “The price forecast mid-point is at $5.30. That is down ten cents from our forecast a month ago. But of course it is down considerably from the $6.78 we estimate now for 2008-2009, a record.”

USDA’s estimate of total soft white wheat production is down about four percent from 2008 at 216 million bushels. Unlike hard red winter and hard red spring wheat, white wheat ending stocks are expected to drop by four million bushels to 60 million at the end of this marketing year. A similar drop is forecast for soft red winter stocks.

USDA’s July winter wheat yield estimates were unchanged from last month in the Pacific Northwest. Spring wheat yields are projected at 74 bushels in Idaho, 52 in Oregon and 47 bushels an acre in Washington.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.

?