China's winter wheat crop

Farm and Ranch February 5, 2009 There has been more and more mention as of late by market commentators of dry conditions in China’s primary winter wheat growing areas. In fact the Xinhua News Agency reports that drought is now affecting almost 43 percent China’s winter wheat crop with no rains being forecast for the near term. Still, when Dr. Art Douglas, Creighton University Professor Emeritus Atmospheric Sciences, spoke at the Pacific Northwest Farm Forum in Spokane this week he had satellite vegetation maps showing green conditions in Chinese wheat areas. He says that is primarily due to a mild winter. Douglas: “So we see a crop that is better shape than normal because only because it hasn‘t had winterkill and it has probably been warm enough to grow. On the other hand, since we have La Nina we know that La Nina winters are dry in China. And you are correct, it is dry there. But it is kind of like in the Plains again, if El Nino were to start coming in they could get wet enough to really help out that crop that so far hasn‘t been hurt by cold. So I think China is still kind of questionable. They most certainly, based on the vegetation map, are not at a stress stage. They are just going to be in a stress stage if we keep going into the spring if they don‘t get moisture and temperatures heat up, then we will see problems with the crop.� Allendale Incorporated recently noted that China has been rebuilding its grain stocks and its percent of wheat stocks versus total annual consumption is at a high of 42 percent. It also holds impressive stocks of rice. I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.